Michael C. Wimberly:

Although West Nile virus will likely remain the dominant arbovirus in the U.S., new hot spots of human disease risk may emerge as increasing temperatures lengthen transmission seasons and shifting rainfall patterns affect the distributions of vectors and hosts.

Ever-increasing global connectivity is contributing to the importation of other arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. Local transmission of these diseases may therefore become more frequent as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus continue to expand their ranges and increase in abundance. These outbreaks will be most likely to occur in cities where urban heat islands, aging infrastructure, and concentrations of vulnerable populations intersect and magnify transmission risk.

Brian D. Byrd:

Mosquito activity over the next 5–10 years is likely to persist and may even increase. I believe that being proactive and responsive to change is essential.

As for current threats, I think we face a real risk of public trust in science continuing to erode. Historically, public support for mosquito control has been strong, and it's critical that we work to maintain that trust.

Our field will require thoughtful, forward-thinking leaders who can advocate effectively and respond to the evolving needs of our communities.

Daniel Markowski:

Most long-term population or weather scientists tend to look at the macro scale, and not locally. If we take the same approach and look at historical trends with expected changes in some of these populations, it seems reasonable to conclude that over the next decade, mosquito-borne disease activity will most likely increase due to warming temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, increased international travel, and expanding urbanization into current reservoir host habitat.

I would expect that West Nile virus (WNV) will likely remain the most significant and widespread mosquito-borne threat, particularly in urban and suburban areas with high Culex mosquito populations. Communities in the South and Midwest may experience more frequent and intense outbreaks.

Michael C. Wimberly:

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, the two most important invasive mosquito species in the U.S., will continue to expand their ranges and increase in local abundance over the next decade. Both species are associated with tropical and subtropical climates, and more of the U.S. will become climatically suitable as temperatures grow warmer. They also use artificial containers as larval habitats and are concentrated in cities and other human-dominated environments. Therefore, increasing urban sprawl will also contribute to the expansion of these species.

Brian D. Byrd:

We continue to have non-native and invasive mosquitoes show up in the US and we are recognizing them at rates much higher than ever before. That being said, in all likelihood there are new introductions in the US that just haven’t been detected yet. Aedes pertinax is a great example. It was first “recognized” in 2011 in Indian River County Florida (Shroyer et al. 2015). Because it looks similar to a couple of other floodwater mosquitoes, it took some sleuthing, including some serious microscopy and molecular techniques to identify the new (to us) species. Years later, the Florida Keys identified the same species in some of their historical collections going back to 1998 (Boehmler and Hribar, 2022). In all likelihood, this species was undetected in the US for well over a decade.

Some invasives (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) are going to require MADs to pivot and work hard to address their peridomestic ecology and diurnal behaviors. Others, like Ae. pertinax are not likely to impact MADs greatly if they already have the ability to control floodwater Aedes.

Daniel Markowski:

I would expect to see a continued expansion of mosquitoes into new regions. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, prominent vectors of diseases like dengue, are already expanding their ranges and this trend will almost certainly continue particularly in the Midwest, western and northeastern portions of the United States. As these mosquito populations expand, it is expected that Dengue will likely become more common in Florida, Texas, and California as conditions become more favorable for year-round or intensive mosquito activity.

For mosquito control programs, invasive species pose many challenges including the need for more intensive source reduction, evolving insecticide resistance patterns, and greater public engagement. Programs will also need to strengthen real-time surveillance and interagency coordination to detect and respond rapidly to new introductions and outbreaks associated with these invasive vectors.

Michael C. Wimberly:

Rising temperatures accelerate mosquito development, shorten virus incubation periods, and expand the geographic range of mosquito-borne diseases. However, excessively high temperatures can decrease mosquito lifespans and reduce the potential for transmission. Additionally, climate factors such as rainfall, atmospheric humidity, and wind speed can influence various aspects of mosquito life history and disease transmission cycles. All these climate relationships vary across different mosquito species, which can exhibit some degree of local adaptation.

Brian D. Byrd:

Climate change will make our jobs more challenging, and it’s critical to understand your local threats, mosquito-related or otherwise, as well as your available resources.

One word that has fallen somewhat out of favor in climate change discussions is “resilience.” Resilience is often defined as the ability to withstand and respond to the wide-ranging impacts of climate change. Resilience doesn’t occur by chance; it requires deliberate preparation.

According to Forbes, “between January 2013 and January 2023, 88.5% of all U.S. counties declared a natural disaster,” including 95% of the 200 most populated counties. Natural disasters come in all forms, and while some may have little impact on mosquito or vector-borne disease activity, the odds are high that you will face a natural disaster at some point in your career.

I continue to be impressed by mosquito control professionals who plan thoughtfully for hurricanes and other tropical storms. Cultivating local preparedness and leaning on the strength of our professional community will be essential to ensuring MADs remain resilient, responsive, and ready for whatever challenges lie ahead.

Daniel Markowski:

A changing environment could directly impact mosquito and vector-borne disease activity with changing temperature cycles, precipitation patterns, and increased habitat suitability. Warmer temperatures are known to accelerate mosquito development and viral replication within the mosquitoes, leading to longer transmission seasons and expanded geographic ranges for various vector competent species.

Increased rainfall and largescale flooding events tend to create more breeding sites, especially in areas with poor drainage. On the other hand, drought conditions have been associated with concentrated mosquito and reservoir host populations around remaining limited water sources, intensifying transmission cycles. Furthermore, milder winters could allow some species to overwinter in regions they previously could not, enabling earlier seasonal activity and northward expansion.

Public health professionals will need to adapt rapidly to these changing patterns with updated risk maps, enhanced vector and arboviral surveillance capacity, and more flexible control strategies. The combined effects of a changing climate will likely increase the workload due to the unpredictability and intensity of mosquito-borne disease threats across the U.S.